Evolution runs
Each run breeds strategies on past data, then trades the best one on days it never saw.
How to read this page
Holdout returns are on days the evolution never saw. The luck check is the champion's percentile among fair random portfolios (50 is average luck; a high number can still be one lucky theme) and its return vs textbook momentum. Top-2 share is how much of the gain came from the two biggest stocks; above 50% means mostly one or two stocks.
Each row is tagged with its engine era. Runs started before 2026-10-15 15:00 UTC are tagged before fixes: they ran before the data fixes (IEX prices, 5-year history, no delisting exits, weaker random controls), so their numbers are not comparable with current engine runs. Nasdaq-100 runs started before 2026-10-15 16:48 UTC also used hindsight members: today's member list applied to the past. Rows with the same arena, unseen window and champion result are verification reruns, shown once with the number of reruns.
S&P 500
- Champion
- SPY
- Textbook momentum
Takeaway: champion beat SPY in 2 of 4 runs shown; textbook momentum is recorded for only 2, so compare with care.
Show table
| Run date | Champion % | SPY % | Momentum % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | +18.43% | +14.61% | not recorded |
| 2026-10-12 | +32.41% | +13.13% | not recorded |
| 2026-10-14 | +0.48% | +10.33% | +8.60% |
| 2026-10-14 | +7.50% | +10.33% | +8.60% |
Evolution runs (newest first)
| Run date | Unseen period | Champion | Benchmark | Momentum | Percentile | Top-2 share | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 current engine ×3 reruns | 2026-04-16 to 2026-10-14 | +7.50% sp500-20261014-201443-i3-g59-00 | +10.33% SPY | +8.60% | 58 | 42% (SNDK INTC) | no signal yet: champion within the range of fair random portfolios (percentile 58) |
| 2026-10-14 current engine | 2026-04-16 to 2026-10-14 | +0.48% sp500-20261014-151728-i0-g59-11 | +10.33% SPY | +8.60% | 31 | not recorded | no signal yet: champion within the range of fair random portfolios (percentile 31) |
| 2026-10-12 before fixes | 2026-04-14 to 2026-10-12 | +32.41% sp500-20261013-i0-g45-02 | +13.13% SPY | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded | champion beat SPY, but baseline base-trend-stocks did better |
| 2026-10-09 before fixes | 2026-04-13 to 2026-10-09 | +18.43% sp500-20261012-i0-g58-00 | +14.61% SPY | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded | champion beat random bots but not SPY |
Walk-forward windows
Each window is trained only on data before it, then traded blind. Newest run first.
| Window | Run | Champion | Champion return | Benchmark | Momentum | Percentile | Top-2 share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 to 2026-10-14 current engine ×2 reruns | wf-sp500-20261014-192650-w3 | wf-sp500-w3-i0-g28-11 | +51.11% | +10.33% | +8.60% | 100 | not recorded |
| 2025-10-14 to 2026-04-15 current engine ×2 reruns | wf-sp500-20261014-192650-w2 | wf-sp500-w2-i2-g28-05 | +63.08% | +7.12% | +49.63% | 100 | not recorded |
| 2025-04-14 to 2025-10-13 current engine ×2 reruns | wf-sp500-20261014-192650-w1 | wf-sp500-w1-i2-g26-07 | +37.09% | +22.57% | +28.86% | 100 | not recorded |
| 2024-10-10 to 2025-04-11 current engine ×2 reruns | wf-sp500-20261014-192650-w0 | wf-sp500-w0-i2-g23-11 | +12.03% | -6.67% | -0.37% | 98 | not recorded |
| 2026-04-13 to 2026-10-09 before fixes | 2026-10-12 | wf-sp500-w3-i1-g23-05 | +21.58% | +14.61% | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded |
| 2025-10-09 to 2026-04-10 before fixes | 2026-10-12 | wf-sp500-w2-i2-g28-11 | +20.78% | +1.44% | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded |
| 2025-04-09 to 2025-10-08 before fixes | 2026-10-12 | wf-sp500-w1-i3-g27-03 | +41.03% | +35.84% | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded |
| 2024-10-07 to 2025-04-08 before fixes | 2026-10-12 | wf-sp500-w0-i1-g27-10 | -0.02% | -11.88% | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded |
Nasdaq-100
Nasdaq-100 members are point-in-time from March 2020, so these results are reportable (board decision 2026-10-15). Runs started before 2026-10-15 16:48 UTC still used today's member list (tagged hindsight members), so read those as leads only.
- Champion
- QQQ
- Textbook momentum
Takeaway: champion beat QQQ in 1 of 3 runs shown; textbook momentum is recorded for only 1, so compare with care.
Show table
| Run date | Champion % | QQQ % | Momentum % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | -20.91% | +22.89% | not recorded |
| 2026-10-12 | +19.23% | +20.32% | not recorded |
| 2026-10-14 | +99.77% | +14.28% | +32.01% |
Evolution runs (newest first)
| Run date | Unseen period | Champion | Benchmark | Momentum | Percentile | Top-2 share | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 current engine | 2026-04-16 to 2026-10-14 | +99.77% nasdaq100-20261014-201445-i2-g55-02 | +14.28% QQQ | +32.01% | 100 | 38% (MU MRNA) | champion beat QQQ, textbook momentum and 100% of fair random portfolios |
| 2026-10-12 before fixes hindsight members | 2026-04-14 to 2026-10-12 | +19.23% nasdaq100-20261013-i0-g59-10 | +20.32% QQQ | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded | champion beat random bots but not QQQ |
| 2026-10-09 before fixes hindsight members | 2026-04-13 to 2026-10-09 | -20.91% nasdaq100-20261012-i1-g55-03 | +22.89% QQQ | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded | no signal yet: random bots did as well |
Walk-forward windows
Each window is trained only on data before it, then traded blind. Newest run first.
| Window | Run | Champion | Champion return | Benchmark | Momentum | Percentile | Top-2 share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 to 2026-10-09 before fixes hindsight members | 2026-10-12 | wf-nasdaq100-w3-i3-g28-10 | +36.45% | +22.89% | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded |
| 2025-10-09 to 2026-04-10 before fixes hindsight members | 2026-10-12 | wf-nasdaq100-w2-i2-g29-09 | +7.79% | +0.20% | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded |
| 2025-04-09 to 2025-10-08 before fixes hindsight members | 2026-10-12 | wf-nasdaq100-w1-i2-g26-07 | +67.82% | +46.99% | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded |
| 2024-10-07 to 2025-04-08 before fixes hindsight members | 2026-10-12 | wf-nasdaq100-w0-i0-g29-07 | +37.47% | -13.42% | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded |
Small caps
Small caps: members are point-in-time from March 2020, with about 89% of delisted stocks covered, so results still lean slightly toward survivors; runs tagged hindsight members used the old list (board decision 2026-10-15: reportable with this caveat). Shown for the record.
- Champion
- IWM
- Textbook momentum
Takeaway: champion beat IWM in 2 of 3 runs shown; textbook momentum is recorded for only 1, so compare with care.
Show table
| Run date | Champion % | IWM % | Momentum % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | +20.85% | +7.58% | not recorded |
| 2026-10-12 | +30.55% | +4.45% | not recorded |
| 2026-10-15 | -17.67% | +0.99% | -35.07% |
Evolution runs (newest first)
| Run date | Unseen period | Champion | Benchmark | Momentum | Percentile | Top-2 share | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 current engine | 2026-04-17 to 2026-10-15 | -17.67% smallcap-20261015-225409-i0-g57-08 | +0.99% IWM | -35.07% | 14 | 11% (GLD TE) | no signal yet: champion within the range of fair random portfolios (percentile 14) |
| 2026-10-12 before fixes hindsight members | 2026-04-14 to 2026-10-12 | +30.55% smallcap-20261013-i0-g26-05 | +4.45% IWM | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded | champion beat IWM and every baseline on unseen days |
| 2026-10-09 before fixes hindsight members | 2026-04-13 to 2026-10-09 | +20.85% smallcap-20261012-i1-g58-08 | +7.58% IWM | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded | champion beat IWM and every baseline on unseen days |
Walk-forward windows
Each window is trained only on data before it, then traded blind. Newest run first.
| Window | Run | Champion | Champion return | Benchmark | Momentum | Percentile | Top-2 share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 to 2026-10-09 before fixes hindsight members | 2026-10-12 | wf-smallcap-w3-i0-g27-05 | +24.95% | +7.58% | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded |
| 2025-10-09 to 2026-04-10 before fixes hindsight members | 2026-10-12 | wf-smallcap-w2-i2-g26-01 | -23.53% | +6.63% | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded |
| 2025-04-09 to 2025-10-08 before fixes hindsight members | 2026-10-12 | wf-smallcap-w1-i3-g29-10 | +60.54% | +42.98% | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded |
| 2024-10-07 to 2025-04-08 before fixes hindsight members | 2026-10-12 | wf-smallcap-w0-i3-g29-04 | -15.76% | -19.26% | not recorded | not recorded | not recorded |