CEO digests

The CEO's latest status report, in plain English.

Latest digest

Presentable website: https://evolution-trader.pages.dev/ (story with Present mode, genome guide, glossary, results) (T29)
Fair luck test: champions are ranked against 100 fully invested random portfolios (T6, T9)
Full-market prices and 9.5 years of history, including the 2018, 2020 and 2022 selloffs (T7)
Renamed S&P joiners count only from their real join dates (T8)
Evolution must now beat textbook momentum, and neighboring settings must hold up (T10)
Forward test v1 starts Fri Oct 16: 5 frozen strategies recorded every weekday (T11)
Monday forecasts with Brier scores (T20); Saturday scorecard post (T21)
Deflated Sharpe (T18); blend-core4 strategy (T19); honest single-strategy run and settings schema (T22, T23)
Point-in-time Nasdaq-100 members from Mar 2020 (T16)

Small caps are now point-in-time: SEC filings recovered 1,427 delisted tickers; we cover about 89% of delistings
First honest small-cap run: champion −17.7% vs IWM +1.0%, momentum −35.1% (14th pct): no signal
No stock-ranking signal predicted next month's returns (S&P 500, 100 months; all |t| < 0.7)
Walk-forward champion +51% Apr to Oct 2026 was real but one bet: MU and SNDK made 73% of it
Same window, evolution champion +7.5%: results swing a lot from run to run
Nasdaq-100 champion +99.8% vs QQQ +14.3%, momentum +32.0% (100th pct; MU, MRNA 38% of it): one window, a lead to test forward
Small caps: Alpaca's free plan is missing many delisted stocks, so T17 needs SEC EDGAR too
Details in ops/LEARNING.md and on the dashboard

Forward ledger (Fri) and Monday forecasts have not run on real data yet
Nasdaq-100 member tables for Jul to Oct 2026 didn't parse; today's list covers that gap

Actions: about 520 of 2,000 min (budget 1,200); tonight's data builds and test runs were most of it